Anon06/23/25, 18:50No.24490513
Mearsheimer right as usual about the war. US knows it can't do anything without full regional escalation, Israel has no concrete war aims and knows regime change is a 1% chance and the only way they can damage Iran meaningfully or increase change of regime change is by bombing Iranian oil fields or committing mass civilian atrocities and becoming a pariah state. Neither the US or Israel can do anything, and Iran knows this, and Iran knows that the US knows that they know (etc.), so the only open question on each side is "Are any actors in this fight retarded or insane enough to do something that makes deescalation impossible?"Iran knows that wars aren't fought tactically but strategically. The fact that everyone still says "Lebanon 2006" (and will now say "Lebanon 2025") whenever anyone says "The IDF would fuck Hezbollah up!!," the fact that decapitation strikes like Nasrallah's had no appreciable effect, all this means that three, five, ten, or twenty years ago, Israeli intelligence will think twice about more quagmire pseudo-invasions of Lebanon. Now the same is true of Iran.What are the concrete results of this? Iran keeps its HEU, the US almost certainly deliberately pulled punches by only firing surface missiles at Natanz and Isfahan and giving the maximum delay before scratching Fordow so Iran could evacuate. The only wildcare here was always Israel, or rather elements of Israel, who clearly DO want a maximalist regional war. But even Israel is badly divided internally over this, with the real military and intelligence men seeing it as pointless.From Israel's perspective, Iran surviving as a sovereign state for another ten or even five years, let alone a sovereign state with a 2006 Lebanon invasion equivalent of its own under its belt, is utterly disastrous. Iron Dome is now revealed PUBLICALLY as the joke people always knew it was. Just like Oct 7, what Netanyahu and the settler coalition wanted more than anything was exactly for Iran to pummel Israel so hard that the US is forced to join on a permanent war footing. Israel doesn't care that this will mean the end of the US empire and escalate to truly serious levels. The alternative for them, as they've known since the 90s, is encirclement, normalization, and regional multipolarity, with Israel getting weaker relative to its neighbors every year.Boring, but that's how early 21st century wars will be fought until some big rupture with the End of History happens.This also tidily explains why no Hezbollah or Houthi join-in. Iran was certainly telling them from the start "nah it'll be symbolically deescalated." Again the only real risk is Trump/Israel being COMPLETELY retarded and doing some Huckabee-tier tactical nuke or killing Khamenei.Israel status: Economy weakened, still a pariah, still mired in Gaza indefinitely, still encircled by asymmetric actors, now even more vulnerable, Netanyahu's coalition further discredited, capital and elite flight, still no Haredi draft.